Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 goals from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight season so far is the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides have been scoring more from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games last season, we see 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less overall.

Considering the bigger picture, the number of shots clubs are making have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.

Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, records show only two additional attempts generated from them outside of penalties, indicating the efficiency teams have been at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals notched in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for all 38 games could be the lowest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just 196 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign is also the only Premier League campaign to see scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Sides Are Most Responsible?

In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolves have seen the largest drop, registering only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in open play goals is very much a London phenomenon, with five out of the capital's seven sides recording five or more goals fewer from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting numerous goals at the early stages of last season as opposed to them having difficulty to convert in open-play this season.

Conversely Manchester City have recorded the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 goals this season coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Comparing clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games leading to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've produced in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.

Man United have scored two times more scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before the manager assumed control, while Sunderland additionally have been more effective at scoring than the club they replaced they superseded.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the trend about netting additional goals from set-plays, as they've recorded three less than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this season's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and more from set-pieces, while City are the only side to buck the trend to date by achieving the contrary.

It will be interesting to see if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their overall inventiveness and start netting increased totals in open play also.

Deborah Garcia
Deborah Garcia

Lena is a digital marketing strategist with over 10 years of experience in SEO and content marketing, passionate about helping startups scale.