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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still