Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.