Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
